Dirichlet distribution

Variance in reproductive success (VRS) in forensic genetics lineage markers

Back in 2017, David Balding and I published the paper “How convincing is a matching Y-chromosome profile?”. One of the key parameters of the simulation model was the variance in reproductive success (VRS). Here I will discuss and demonstrate this parameter. First note for intuition that in a Wright–Fisher model, all individuals have the same probability of becoming a father, or of having reproductive success. So the VRS here is 0.